● Introduction
Empirical Studies of Conflict（ESOC）將於2025年6月3日(二)至6月4日(三)在國立臺灣大學舉辦首次在亞洲的會議。本次會議旨在匯聚政治學、經濟學及相關領域的實證研究學者，探討與衝突相關的廣泛議題，特別關注亞洲新興的安全挑戰。會議預期將在學術研究、政策影響、知識傳播、區域安全以及長期合作等方面取得顯著成效。ESOC 研究與政策會議(台北)將透過發表前沿研究，產出具體的學術與政策貢獻，深入探討衝突與安全挑戰的成因、影響與應對策略。2025年ESOC研究與政策會議將在學術研究、政策制定、知識傳播、區域安全和長期合作等方面產生深遠影響，為亞洲乃至全球的和平與發展作出重要貢獻。除了論文發表以外，本次活動於6月3日(二)榮幸邀請諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Roger Myerson進行專題演講。歡迎各界報名參與，集思廣益。
Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) Network
● 普林斯頓大學的 Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) Network 近年來在學術界和政策研究領域均取得顯著發展，成為全球衝突研究的前沿平台。該網絡致力於以實證數據和量化方法分析衝突現象，近年來已成功舉辦多次年度學術會議，會議地點遍布全球不同城市，如華盛頓、倫敦以及新加坡等，吸引了來自世界各地的研究者和政策制定者參與交流。會議期間，不僅有來自政治學、經濟學、社會學等多個領域的專家學者作報告，還邀請了國際著名學者參與專題討論，如克里斯托弗·克拉克（Christopher Clark）、詹姆斯·戴維斯（James Davis）等重量級學者，他們的參與大大提升了會議的學術水準和國際影響力。
● ESOC Network 的學術重要性主要體現在三個方面：
首先，透過跨學科的合作，該網絡推動了衝突現象數據化與實證研究方法的發展，為研究者提供豐富、準確的數據資源，使對衝突的動態、起因及後果分析更具說服力。
其次，ESOC 的研究成果在多個頂級期刊上發表，成為國際關係、政治經濟學以及安全研究領域的重要理論支柱，對學界產生深遠影響。
最後，該網絡透過與政府機構、國際組織的緊密合作，將前沿研究成果應用於實際政策制定，協助各國政府和國際社會更好地理解和預防衝突，進而促進國際和平與安全。
https://esoc.princeton.edu/events/2025/esoc-research-and-policy-conference-taipei
Day 1
| 2025 / June 3 (Tue.) | ||
| 08:15 - 08:30 | Transportation to Venue (NTU College of Social Sciences) | |
| 08:40 - 09:00 | Registration (Liang Kuo-shu International Conference Hall, 3F) | |
| 09:00 - 09:30 | Welcome (Liang Kuo-shu International Conference Hall, 3F) | |
| 09:30 - 11:00 | Panel 1: Parallel Sessions | |
| Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F | Room 419, 4F | |
| 1A Deterrence 1 | 1B Environmental Protection | |
| • Justin Canfil (Carnegie Mellon): The Logic of Overdeterrence in International Conflict • Samuel Liu (Cornell): Ambiguous Threats, Assurance, and Coercive Credibility: Experimental Evidence • Esteban Klor (Hebrew U): Deterrence Through Response Curves: An Empirical Analysis of the Gaza-Israel Conflict ‣ Discussant: Eli Berman (UCSD) | • Dotan Haim (Florida State): The Political Economy of Conflict and Deforestation: Evidence from the Philippines • Emily Russell (Stanford): Policing the Peripheries: How National Parks Facilitate State Consolidation and Dampen State-society Relations in India • Chia-yi Lee (National Chengchi University): Revisiting the Link Between Natural Disasters and Civil Conflicts ‣ Discussant: Renard Sexton (Emory) | |
| 11:00 - 11:15 | Break | |
| 11:15 - 12:15 | Keynote Speech: “Decentralized Stabilization Assistance” | |
| Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F | ||
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| 12:15 - 13:30 | Lunch (Room 108, 1F) | |
| 13:30 - 15:00 | Panel 2: Parallel Sessions | |
| Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F | Room 419, 4F | |
| 2A Deterrence 2 | 2B Identity | |
| • Tyler Jost (Brown): Protecting the Messenger: Patrons and Foreign Policy Reporting in China • Renard Sexton (Emory): Empirically Testing Threats and Reassurance: Evidence from South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and China • Yi-Hao Su (NTU): Gray-Zone Conflicts, Resolve, and the Rally 'round the Flag Effect in Target Countries ‣ Discussant: James Fearon (Stanford) | • Rikio Inouye (Princeton): Racism Beyond the Binary: The Penalty for Arab and Asian Countries in Conflict Support • Hahn Linh Tran (Emory): Family Counts: Decision-Making of South Vietnamese Military Officers • Nirvikar Jassal (LSE): Do Women Elected Leaders Affect Police Responses to Gender-Based Violence? Evidence from India ‣ Discussant: Greg Chih-Hsin Sheen (Academia Sinica) | |
| 15:00 - 15:30 | Break | |
| 15:30 - 17:00 | Panel 3: Parallel Sessions | |
| Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F | Room 419, 4F | |
| 3A Statebuilding | 3B Crime 1 | |
| • Lelys Dinarte-Diaz (World Bank): Investing in Human Capital During Wartime: Experimental Evidence from Ukraine • Greg Chih-Hsin Sheen (Academia Sinica): Sovereignty Threat and Indigenous Identity • Roger Myerson (U Chicago): Decentralized Stabilization Assistance ‣ Discussant: Jacob Shapiro (Princeton) | • Daniel Rio Tinto (FGV): When Public Goods Go Bad: Criminal Actors and Negative Security Externalities of Welfare Projects • Juan Campos (Berkeley): The Politics of Subnational Police Reform • Yi-Ting Wang (National Cheng Kung University): Spying Students and Silencing Voices: Evidence from Autocratic Infiltration on the U.S. College Campuses ‣ Discussant: Michael Weintraub (Uni de los Andes) | |
| 17:15 | Ministry of Foreign Affairs Event (INVITE ONLY) | |
| Speaker: Deputy Minister Chen Ming-chi | ||
| For invitees: Meet at the Liang Kuo-shu International Conference Hall (3F) at 5:15 PM for transportation | ||
Day 2
| 2025 / June 4 (Wed.) | ||
| 08:15 - 08:30 | Transportation to Venue (NTU College of Social Sciences) | |
| 08:40 - 09:00 | Registration (Liang Kuo-shu International Conference Hall, 3F) | |
| 09:00 - 10:30 | Panel 4: Parallel Sessions | |
| Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F | Room 419, 4F | |
| 4A Protest | 4B Natural Resources | |
| • Michael Weintraub (Uni de los Andes): Do Protests Cause Crime? Evidence from Bogotá, Colombia • Megan Ryan / Alexander Fertig (Michigan): The Asymmetric Effects of Internet Shutdowns on Protests and Armed Conflict: The Case of Myanmar • Samson Yuen (HK Baptist U): Managing Violence from Within? Discursive Restraints in a Leaderless Movement ‣ Discussant: Lev Nachman (NTU) | • Kyosuke Kikuta (Institute of Developing Economies, Japan): Claimability in International Relations: Oil Discoveries, Territorial Claims, and Interstate Conflicts • Jing-Rong Zeng (Université Catholique de Louvain): Beggar Thy Neighbor? Illicit Gold Trade and Conflict in the African Great Lakes Region • Tatsuya Koyama (Emory): Militarized Sanctuary: How Incomplete Protection of Indigenous Peoples Entangle Them into Armed Conflict ‣ Discussant: Aidan Milliff (Florida State) | |
| 10:30 - 10:45 | Break | |
| 10:45 - 12:15 | Panel 5: Parallel Sessions | |
| Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F | Room 419, 4F | |
| 5A Institutions | 5B Civil Conflict | |
| • Hsu Yumin Wang (Taipei School of Economics): Authoritarian Judicial Balancing: Distributional Conflict, Labor Law, and the Value of Dependent Courts • Alexander Lee (Rochester): War, Politics, and the Birth of Modern Bureaucracy ‣ Discussant: Fang-yi Chiou (IPSAS) / Weronika Jakubczak (Akademia Pożarnicza) | • Jimmy Graham (NYU): Can Pro-peace Messages Reduce Civil Conflict? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in South Sudan • Aidan Milliff (Florida State): Political Parties and The State in Civil Wars Evidence from Elections and Insurgency in India ‣ Discussant: Aila Matanock (Berkeley) | |
| 12:15 - 13:30 | Lunch | |
| 13:30 - 14:30 | Panel 6: Parallel Sessions | |
| Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F | Room 419, 4F | |
| 6A Markets | 6B Terrorism | |
| • Joseph Tao-yi Wang / Ding-Wei Wang (NTU): Discrimination and Pregame Communication: An Experimental Investigation • Yu-Sung Su (Tsinghua University): The Behavioral Repercussions of Corruption Exposure: An Experimental Study on Anti-Corruption Messaging in China ‣ Discussant: Jason M. Kuo (NTU) | • Emine Deniz (Sabanci): Selling the Incumbent Short? Markets, Conflicts and Incumbent Tenure • Weronika Jakubczak (Akademia Pożarnicza): Cognitive Warfare Aspects of Weaponization and Securitization of Irregular Migration: Russia-Belarus Hybrid Strategies Against Poland, European and NATO security ‣ Discussant: Chia-yi Lee (National Chengchi University) | |
| 14:30 - 14:45 | Break | |
| 14:45 - 16:15 | Panel 7: Parallel Sessions | |
| Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F | Room 419, 4F | |
| 7A Civilians in Conflict | 7B Crime 2 | |
| • Sangyoon Park (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology): Civilian Killings and Long-Run Development: Evidence from the Korean War • Sangyong Son (NYU): An Evil or a Necessary Evil? The Effects of Atomic Bombings on Survivors’ Attitudes and Preferences Toward Nuclear Weapons • Francisco Villamil (University Carlos III of Madrid): The Consequences of Grassroots Human Rights: Mass Grave Exhumations in Spain ‣ Discussant: Justin Canfil (Carnegie Mellon) | • Jessie Trudeau (Syracuse): Criminal Capital and Voter Mobilization • Carlos Schmidt-Padilla (Berkeley): Breaking the Gang: A Preventive Approach to Reduce Recruitment in Schools • Santiago Tobón (Universidad EAFIT): Building Trust in the Police: Evidence from A Multi-Site Experiment in Colombia ‣ Discussant: Wen-Chin Wu (IPSAS) | |
| 16:30 - 17:00 | Wrap up (Liang Kuo-shu Int. Conf. Hall, 3F) | |
| 17:00 - 18:00 | Transportation back to the hotel | |
| 18:30 | Dinner Event (INVITE ONLY) | |
● Side Event: Talks 
June 2 ▼
James D. Fearon | 10:00-11:30am @ Room 419
◎“The Conventional Balance of Terror: First-strike Incentives and Deterrence in the Western Pacific”
https://spe.ntu.edu.tw/news-events/the-conventional-balance-of-terror-america-needs-a-new-triad-to-restore-its-eroding-deterrence/
Jacob N. Shapiro | 14:00-15:30am @ Room 419
◎“Using Data to Understand Conflict: Lessons from 20 Years of Research onInsurgency and Terrorism”
https://spe.ntu.edu.tw/news-events/using-data-to-understand-conflict-lessons-from-20-years-of-research-on-insurgency-and-terrorism/
June 5 ▼
Aila M. Matanock | 14:00-15:30am @ Room 419
◎“Inviting Intervention: Statebuilding by Delegating Security”
https://spe.ntu.edu.tw/news-events/inviting-intervention-statebuilding-by-delegating-security/
June 6 ▼
Eli Berman | 10:00-11:30am @ Room 419
◎“Economics and National Security since Adam Smith: A Brief History”
https://spe.ntu.edu.tw/news-events/economic-and-national-security-since-adam-smith-a-brief-history/
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(※本次會議為全英文進行，未提供翻譯)
